World View From the Left

Israel’s Retaliation

October 2, 2024

Most observers would believe that that CNBC is a left leaning media outlet. Most on the right believe we will have a economic disaster if Harris is elected, so to look to the left for their economic forecasters is at that very least an interesting exercise to understand what they see in the future economuy.

Greg Valliere

Chief Political Strategist, Potomac Research Group

Greg Valliere is Chief Political Strategist at the Potomac Research Group, a Washington-based firm that advises institutional investors on how government policies affect the markets. Valliere has covered Washington for over 30 years, starting his career as an intern at The Washington Post, then cofounding the Washington Forum in 1974 to bridge Wall Street and Washington. He has held several positions, including Director of Research, for Washington-based firms, including the Schwab Washington Research Group. Valliere is an exclusive commentator for CNBC-TV, where he appears regularly on most of the network’s programs.

GEOPOLITICAL EXPERTS are virtually unanimous: Israel will aggressively retaliate against Iran, probably within days. Israel is expected to act; to do nothing would be a huge surprise.

ISRAEL NOW HAS A FREER HAND to respond forcefully to Iran’s missile barrage on Tuesday than it did in April, security analysts and former officials say, when its retaliation for the previous Iranian attack was a largely symbolic strike against an air-defense installation in Iran.

IN APRIL, Israel was worried issuing too intense of a response would prompt Iran to order its proxy militias — particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon — to retaliate extensively.

BUT AFTER LAUNCHING a bombing campaign that killed Hezbollah’s leader and other commanders last week, along with a ground invasion overnight Tuesday, Israel has crushed Hezbollah, stripping Iran of much of its deterrence against a wider Israeli attack, the New York Times reports this morning.

THE TIMES SPECULATES that the Biden administration may urge Israel to curb its response. But with American elections fast approaching, it's increasingly unlikely Biden can dissuade the Israelis. 

QUOTING A MIDEAST EXPERT, the Times says, "this is an escalation whose end is difficult to foresee.” He said “Israel’s action will almost certainly trigger another Iranian response. We appear to be at the start of forceful confrontation between us and the Iranians.”

BUT AFTER IRAN FIRED ABOUT 180 missiles in an attack that went on for roughly half an hour, Israel’s challenge was not whether to attack Iran, but how powerfully to respond. 

THE ONLY QUESTION, one expert said, is “how much can we harm them versus their capacity to harm us.” He added he believed the damage Israel inflicted on Hezbollah had diminished the threat of Iran’s proxies.

EVEN AN ATTACK on Iran’s nuclear facilities — long a source of fear for Israel, which worries about Tehran gaining a nuclear weapon — should be considered,” several experts believe. 

SOME EXPEERTS, including Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli prime minister, wrote on social media that Israel was facing “the biggest opportunity in the past 50 years” to change the face of the region.

"WE MUST ACT NOW to destroy Iran's nuclear project, destroy their major energy facilities and critically hit this terrorist regime,” Mr. Bennett said. “The tentacles of that octopus are severely wounded — now’s the time to aim for the head,” he said.

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IT’S HARD TO SAY who won the debate last night; Sen. JD Vance seemed sharp and aggressive until the very end, when he refused to say whether Donald Trump won the 2020 election. Neither Vance nor Tim Walz hurt their ticket, but this was a very forgettable debate. (This proves he is a leftie after listening today to many of his colleagues that described Walz as a disaster)

WALZ SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE, to be diplomatic, but there's another political development that has raised eyebrows — Trump has wandered off in recent speeches, getting names confused and seeming very tired. This morning's Washington Post contains a troubling account of what appears to be Trump's descent.