Texas Senate Race 2026 - Sleeze and Drama
Segment #782
Yeah, the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race really is wild right now—especially with the Republican primary heating up just as early voting kicks off (it started around mid-February 2026, ahead of the March 3 primary).Incumbent Senator John Cornyn (seeking a fifth term) is facing serious challenges from two higher-profile Republicans:
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — a staunch Trump ally and MAGA favorite — who's been polling as the frontrunner or neck-and-neck in recent surveys. Paxton's campaign emphasizes his "America First" stance, attacks Cornyn as a "RINO" (e.g., for past votes on gun control and border deals), and touts massive grassroots energy despite establishment opposition.
U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt — a younger, veteran candidate who's also challenging Cornyn from the right, leading to some nasty intra-party drama (like accusations of doxxing family info via public records and police reports filed).
Polls show a fragmented GOP field with Paxton often leading (around 30-36% in averages), Cornyn trailing slightly (mid-20s to low-30s), and Hunt in third (teens to 20%). Many expect no one hits 50%, forcing a May runoff between the top two (likely Paxton vs. Cornyn). Outside groups have poured in huge money—pro-Cornyn forces (including one backed by former Gov. Rick Perry) have spent tens of millions to defend him, making this one of the most expensive Senate primaries ever, yet he's still struggling.On the Democratic side, it's competitive too:
Rep. Jasmine Crockett (a rising progressive star) vs. State Rep. James Talarico (who's leaned into his Christian faith and gotten some media buzz).
Polls flip-flop between them leading, but whoever wins faces a tough general in red-leaning Texas.
The whole thing feels chaotic because Texas Republicans are divided between establishment/Trump-skeptical types (backing Cornyn's experience and fundraising) and the hard-right MAGA wing (rallying to Paxton). Add in heavy ad spending, personal attacks, and the national spotlight on whether the GOP base will oust a long-time incumbent—it's pure political drama.What specifically makes it "nuts" to you—the primary infighting, the money involved, or something else?
Republicans
You can’t analyze the Texas Senate race without examining the Cornyn Hunt feud over Hunt’s alleged previous support for Hillary Clinton. Cornyn comes off as a bit sleezy and desperate to maintain the Senate seat he has held for 23 years. Many are turned off by Cornyns negative ads which can be a risk against a West Point graduate who also happens to be a decorated combat veteran with 55 missions in an Apache helicopter
Key Attacks in the Cornyn-Hunt Feud
Cornyn's Side: His campaign and allies have dropped millions on ads and a dedicated website (like realwesleyhunt.com) hammering Hunt for voting in the 2008 Democratic primary for Hillary Clinton, missing congressional votes while campaigning, and allegedly casting an "illegal" vote in a recent election (which Hunt's team called a doxxing attempt by revealing personal details). houstonpublicmedia.org
Hunt has explained the Clinton vote as part of Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" crossover strategy to disrupt Democrats, but Cornyn's ads strip that context to paint him as disloyal. houstonchronicle.com
Operation Chaos?
Limbaugh, the influential conservative talk radio host, urged his Republican and conservative listeners to cross over and vote in Democratic primaries (in states with open or semi-open primary rules, like Texas, Indiana, and others) for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama. The goal wasn't genuine support for Clinton but to prolong the bitter Democratic nomination fight, "bloody up" both candidates, and weaken whoever ultimately won the nomination against Republican John McCain in the general election.
Limbaugh framed it as payback for Democrats supposedly influencing the GOP primary (e.g., some voted for McCain) and as a way to keep the media focused on Democratic infighting.
He called himself the "commander" of the operation and declared it a success multiple times, saying it "exceeded all expectations" and was "good box office" for entertaining his audience.
In states like Texas (March 4, 2008), Clinton won, and some credited crossover votes for helping her. In Indiana (May 6, 2008), Clinton narrowly won, with exit polls showing about 10% of Democratic primary voters identifying as Republicans—Limbaugh crowed about it, though academic studies later found limited statistical evidence of a massive Limbaugh-driven shift in voting or registration.
By May 2008, Limbaugh even shifted, calling off the operation and urging superdelegates to pick Obama, arguing he'd be the "weaker" nominee for Republicans to beat.
Democrats (including Obama aides, Howard Dean, and John Kerry) accused him of "tampering" with the process, while Clinton herself quipped "Be careful what you wish for, Rush" after one win. Limbaugh dismissed it as fun mischief, not serious interference. Connection to Wesley Hunt (from our earlier Texas Senate discussion)This ties directly back to Rep. Wesley Hunt's 2008 Democratic primary vote for Clinton, which Cornyn's ads highlight as "supporting Hillary." Hunt has repeatedly explained it as participation in Operation Chaos—he was following Limbaugh's call to Republican crossover voters in Texas to vote for Clinton and extend the Democratic primary drama, helping McCain by keeping Obama and Clinton fighting longer. Hunt has said he has "no regrets" about it, as it was a tactical move, not genuine Democratic support. Cornyn's campaign and allies (e.g., via realwesleyhunt.com) often omit this full context, framing it simply as Hunt backing Clinton to question his "MAGA" credentials. It's a classic primary attack: selective facts without the backstory Limbaugh himself provided at the time. Operation Chaos remains a memorable example of strategic crossover voting in open primaries—effective for drama and media attention, if debated in actual electoral impact. If you're asking in the context of the current Texas Senate race or want clips/transcripts from Limbaugh's shows, let me know!
Yeah, the Texas GOP Senate primary has turned into a full-on slugfest, and the back-and-forth between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and challenger Rep. Wesley Hunt has been particularly vicious—lots of personal jabs, selective attack ads, and accusations flying about records and motives. It's clear Cornyn's camp is sweating this one, given the heavy spending on negative ads targeting Hunt (despite Hunt polling third overall) and the scramble to frame him as unreliable or "fake MAGA." Meanwhile, Hunt's hitting back hard on Cornyn's long Washington tenure, policy flips, and what he calls "dishonest" smears.
The whole thing feels like a desperate bid by Cornyn to secure a runoff spot while fending off both Hunt and frontrunner AG Ken Paxton.
Hunt's Side: Hunt's firing back by accusing Cornyn of running a "basement campaign" funded by "swamp money," authoring bills that allowed unvetted Afghan migrants into the US (then scrubbing mentions from his site), supporting red flag gun laws, and failing to fully back Trump early on. marshallnewsmessenger.com
He's positioned himself as the "new generation" alternative, calling out Cornyn's 24 years in DC as out-of-touch and ineffective. dallasnews.com
Hunt also claims Cornyn's attacks are desperate because his agenda is "dying" in the Senate. This isn't just rhetoric—the race has seen over $50 million in ad spending, much of it negative, with Cornyn's allies dumping cash to prop him up amid fears he could lose a runoff. time.com
Paxton's in the mix too, tag-teaming Cornyn with his own hits (like AI-generated mockery), but the Cornyn-Hunt sniping stands out for its personal edge.
Latest Polling Snapshot
No one's hitting 50% yet, so a May 26 runoff between the top two is likely. Paxton's consistently leading, but Cornyn's focus on Hunt suggests worry that Hunt could surge and knock him out of second place. Here's a quick table of recent polls among likely GOP primary voters:
In hypothetical runoffs: Paxton beats Cornyn 51%-40% and Hunt 56%-33%, while Cornyn edges Hunt 46%-39%. elpasotimes.com
Cornyn's high unfavorables (highest among the three) aren't helping, and his massive cash advantage ($5.9M on hand vs. Paxton's $3.7M and Hunt's <$800K) hasn't translated to a lead yet. tpr.org
Early voting starts next week (Feb 17), with the primary on March 3. If Cornyn's attacks on Hunt ramp up more, it's a sign he's really feeling the heat—especially with Trump staying neutral so far, which could shift things if he weighs in. texasmetronews.com
The dishonesty angle? It's politics as usual in a heated primary, but yeah, the selective omissions (like the Operation Chaos context) make it feel extra slimy.
Dems
On the Democratic side of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race, the primary is shaping up as a competitive two-way contest between U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin/Round Rock), with businessman Ahmad Hassan as a distant third. The primary is set for March 3, with early voting kicking off on February 17 and a likely runoff on May 26 if no one hits 50%. Filing closed in December 2025, and the race has drawn national attention due to both frontrunners' rising profiles—Crockett for her viral takedowns of Republicans and social media savvy, and Talarico for his faith-based progressive messaging aimed at bridging divides and appealing to moderates. ballotpedia.org +1
The campaign has highlighted contrasts in style:
Crockett emphasizes fighting the GOP "swamp" and energizing the base (especially Black voters, where she polls at 70%+), while Talarico focuses on persuasion, policy like education reform, and courting disaffected Republicans. texastribune.org +1
Fundraising is strong for both
Crockett raised $4.2M last quarter with a national donor network, while Talarico pulled in $3.8M, shattering records for a state legislator. uh.edu +1
Endorsements are split:
Crockett has backing from figures like former Rep. Colin Allred, the Texas Legislative Black Caucus, and the San Antonio Express-News; Talarico from unions like the AFL-CIO and some moderate Dems. @_RebeccaMarques
Recent Polling in the Democratic Primary
Polls show a tight race, with Crockett holding a slight edge in the latest surveys but within margins of error. Here's a snapshot of polls among likely Democratic primary voters (Hassan consistently under 3%, so omitted for brevity):
Betting markets like Kalshi and Predict
It currently favor Talarico to win the nomination at around 60-62%, with Crockett at 38-40%. predictit.org +1
Racial dynamics have added tension, with some online discourse framing scrutiny of Crockett's "electability" as biased, while her strong Black voter support (a key Dem base making up ~20% of primary voters) could prove decisive. texastribune.org
Do Democrats Have a Chance in the General?
It's an uphill battle in ruby-red Texas—Dems haven't won statewide since 1994—but yes, they have a plausible shot, especially if the GOP's brutal primary (Paxton vs. Cornyn vs. Hunt) leaves a damaged nominee. en.wikipedia.org
Forecasters rate it Likely Republican (Cook Political, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections), but that's down from Solid R earlier, reflecting potential midterm backlash against Trump (whose Texas approval is dipping) and GOP infighting. cookpolitical.com +1
Dems' edge:
Massive fundraising (they outraised GOP in Q4), urban turnout in Houston/Dallas/Austin, and exploiting Paxton's scandals (impeachment, affair) if he wins the primary. sanantonioreport.org +3
Risks: Texas's rightward shift (Trump won by 14% in 2024), low Dem turnout in midterms, and internal primary divisions. Betting gives Republicans ~75-80% odds overall. @VoteHub
If Dems nominate a unifier and the GOP picks a polarizing figure like Paxton, it could flip to a toss-up by summer—watch for Trump's endorsement (he's neutral so far) to shake things up. nymag.com