Real Data on The Flu Shots
Segment #680
I full admit my bias. I have not gotten it and don’t plan on getting it in the future. I don’t trust the peddlers of these flu shots any more than the companies selling mRNA. What would change my mind is honest data produced by entities that have no commercial agenda. I trust Kennedy/Makary/Bhattacharya more than the government behemoth is they are trying to change.
“Standard of Care” Support for Flu Shots
2025-2026 Flu Shot: Key Information and Recommendations
As of November 27, 2025, flu activity is starting to rise in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including unusual early increases in places like New South Wales, Australia, and preliminary reports of hospitalizations in the U.S. The 2025-2026 flu season (which runs October 2025 to May 2026) is expected to be potentially severe, based on early indicators from the prior season's high pediatric deaths and ongoing circulation of strains like H3N2. Getting vaccinated remains the most effective way to reduce severe outcomes, even if the vaccine doesn't perfectly match all circulating viruses.Who Should Get the 2025-2026 Flu Shot?The CDC and WHO strongly recommend annual flu vaccination for everyone 6 months and older, with rare exceptions for those with severe allergies to vaccine components (e.g., egg proteins in some formulations) or other contraindications. This includes:
Children: All kids 6 months+, especially those under 5 or with chronic conditions. First-time recipients under 9 may need 2 doses (4 weeks apart).
Adults 65+: At highest risk; opt for enhanced vaccines like Fluzone High-Dose, Fluad (adjuvanted), or Flublok (recombinant) for better protection.
Pregnant people: Safe at any trimester to protect both parent and baby.
High-risk groups: Those with asthma, diabetes, heart disease, or weakened immune systems.
No routine flu shots for infants under 6 months, but vaccinating household contacts is key.What's New in the 2025-2026 Flu Vaccine?This year's vaccines are trivalent (protecting against 3 strains), a shift from quadrivalent formulas due to the global disappearance of the B/Yamagata influenza B lineage since the COVID-19 pandemic. No B/Yamagata component is needed, simplifying production and improving supply.Recommended strains (per FDA, CDC, and WHO for Northern Hemisphere):
Egg-based
A/Wisconsin/67/2022 (H1N1)pdm09-like
A/Darwin/9/2021 (H3N2)-like
B/Austria/1359417/2021-like
Cell-based
A/Wisconsin/67/2022 (H1N1)pdm09-like
A/Salt_Lake_City/1/2024 (H3N2)-like
B/Austria/1359417/2021-like
Recombinant
A/Wisconsin/67/2022 (H1N1)pdm09-like
A/Michigan/1/2024 (H3N2)-like
B/Austria/1359417/2021-like
Supply: Adequate and diverse; no shortages expected. Single-dose, thimerosal-free vials are prioritized for kids, pregnant people, and those 65+.
Options:
Inactivated (shot): Most common; for all ages.
Live attenuated (nasal spray, FluMist): Ages 2-49; now FDA-approved for self-administration.
High-dose/recombinant/adjuvanted: For 65+.
When to Get It?Now is still an excellent time—ideally September or October for peak immunity by December/January, when flu often surges. Protection builds in 2 weeks and lasts 6 months, but wanes faster in older adults (10-11% per month). It's never too late; even December shots reduce hospitalization risk by 40-78%.
Early (July-August): Okay for kids or high-risk groups, but avoid if possible to prevent waning.
Combine with others: Safe to get with COVID-19, RSV, or pneumococcal vaccines—different arms recommended.
Effectiveness and Safety
Last season's (2024-2025) vaccine was 32-60% effective against outpatient flu and 41-78% against hospitalizations, varying by strain match. For 2025-2026, early data suggests good coverage against dominant H1N1 and H3N2, though a circulating H3N2 subclade (K) may lower overall match—still, it reduces severity.Side effects are mild (soreness, low fever) and far rarer than flu complications (e.g., 130,000 projected U.S. deaths this season). No link to getting flu; a Cleveland Clinic study cited online showed higher infection risk in some vaccinated adults during high-activity periods, but this is observational and contradicted by broader CDC data—experts emphasize net benefits.Where to Get It?
Free/low-cost: Covered by most insurance (ACA mandates); Medicare/CHIP too. Pharmacies (Walgreens, CVS), clinics, workplaces, or public health sites.
Travelers: Get it now if heading to Southern Hemisphere (e.g., Australia), where winter flu is active.
For personalized advice, consult your doctor. Stay vigilant: Wash hands, mask in crowds, and test/treat early if symptoms hit. Vaccination could prevent millions of illnesses this season.
Data Against Getting Flu Shots
Arguments Against the 2025-2026 Flu ShotWhile flu vaccines are widely recommended by health authorities like the CDC for reducing severe outcomes, several evidence-based concerns have emerged for the 2025-2026 season. These draw from recent studies, viral evolution, and production challenges. Below, I outline key arguments, substantiated with data where available. Note that flu vaccines vary in effectiveness year-to-year, and individual health factors should guide decisions—consult a doctor for personalized advice.1. Limited or Negative Effectiveness Against Circulating Strains The 2025-2026 flu vaccine targets three strains (A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B/Victoria), but a dominant new variant, H3N2 subclade K, emerged too late for inclusion. This mismatch could reduce protection significantly.
Early UK data shows vaccine effectiveness (VE) at 30-40% in adults and 70-75% in children against hospitalization, but this drops for subclade K due to reduced antibody reactivity in lab tests.
cidrap.umn.edu
A Cleveland Clinic study of 53,402 employees during the prior 2024-2025 season found vaccinated individuals had a 27% higher risk of flu infection (VE = -26.9%), with only 2% overall infection rate but disproportionate cases among the vaccinated (82% of participants).
medrxiv.org
Experts note this may reflect strain drift or behavioral factors (e.g., vaccinated people testing more), but it fuels skepticism about broad protection.
aljazeera.com
Historical VE fluctuates: 10-60% overall, with H3N2 seasons often at the low end due to egg-production mutations altering the hemagglutinin protein.
science.org
For 2025, University of Minnesota estimates are 41.6% for H3N2, 53.3% for H1N1, and 77.6% for B/Victoria—still leaving many unprotected.
@BookDanno50
Substantiation Table: Estimated VE by Strain (2025-2026 Preliminary Data)
Strain
Estimated VE (%)
Key Concern
A(H1N1)
53.3
Moderate protection
A(H3N2)
41.6
Subclade K mismatch
B/Victoria
77.6
Stronger but less common
Critics argue this inconsistency makes annual shots a "gamble," especially since prior immunity or natural exposure may offer comparable or better broad protection without intervention.2. Potential for Increased Infection Risk (Antibody-Dependent Enhancement Concerns) Some data suggests repeated flu shots could paradoxically heighten susceptibility.
The Cleveland Clinic findings align with prior research showing negative VE in certain seasons, possibly from immune imprinting where vaccines bias responses toward outdated strains, leaving gaps for new variants.
health.com
Dr. Peter McCullough cited this in discussions, noting personal post-vaccination illnesses and calling for reevaluation.
@JackPosobiec
On X, users reference the -30% efficacy from April 2025 data, questioning why 2025-2026 would differ amid ongoing viral evolution.
@365_Solved
This echoes broader debates on "original antigenic sin," where early exposures (vaccine or natural) lock in suboptimal immunity.
3. Safety Risks and Side Effects Outweigh Benefits for Low-Risk Individuals While mild side effects (e.g., sore arm, fatigue) affect ~10-20% and resolve quickly, rarer issues raise flags, especially with co-administration trends.
Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS): 1-2 cases per million doses, a neurological disorder causing weakness/paralysis—higher than zero but lower than flu's natural risk (yet still a concern for healthy adults).
nbcnews.com +1
Anaphylaxis: Rare (life-threatening allergy) but possible; monitoring is advised post-shot.
blog.ochsner.org
New for 2025: FDA's Vinay Prasad memo questions co-administering flu, COVID, and RSV shots' safety/efficacy, citing insufficient data—potentially amplifying risks like inflammation or immune overload.
everydayhealth.com
Experimental mRNA flu vaccines show 29% better efficacy but more moderate side effects (e.g., fever, aches).
cidrap.umn.edu
Thimerosal in some multi-dose vials (e.g., Fluzone) is a preservative linked to neurotoxicity concerns by critics, though CDC deems it safe; it's avoided in single-dose options this season.
everydayhealth.com +1
For low-risk groups (healthy adults/kids), the ~40% average VE may not justify even mild risks, per parental polls showing 16% skipping due to safety fears.
healthline.com
4. Production and Global Surveillance Shortcomings U.S. withdrawal from WHO in 2025 has slashed flu sample shipments to CDC (from thousands to far fewer), hampering strain prediction for future vaccines—including 2026's.
npr.org
This led to canceled WHO meetings and reliance on outdated data, exacerbating the subclade K issue.
cidrap.umn.edu
Egg-based manufacturing (used for most shots) introduces mutations in ~15-20% of H3N2 vaccines, reducing efficacy by up to 30%.
science.org
Alternatives like cell-based or mRNA are limited in supply.
5. Natural Immunity and Alternative Strategies May Suffice
Prior flu exposure builds broader, longer-lasting immunity than vaccines, which wane after 6 months.
nytimes.com
Critics on X advocate Vitamin D optimization for immune support, citing studies linking deficiency to higher flu severity.
@365_Solved
"Vaccine fatigue" and misinformation have dropped uptake to historic lows, with 2024-2025 seeing 47-82 million U.S. cases despite shots—suggesting over-reliance on imperfect tools.
healthline.com +1
In summary, the 2025-2026 flu shot's strain mismatch, variable efficacy, and rare risks provide substantive grounds for caution, particularly for healthy individuals. These aren't blanket dismissals—high-risk groups (e.g., elderly, pregnant) still benefit most—but they highlight why some opt out. For balance, CDC data shows overall VE at 32-60% against outpatient illness last season.
cdc.gov
Weigh evidence against your health profile.
Limitations of RCTs: Ethical, Practical, and Yearly ConstraintsRCTs aren't perfect for annual justification—your point about "data changes" highlights real barriers
Ethical Hurdles: Universal recommendations (e.g., CDC's for all ≥6 months) make placebo-controlled RCTs unethical, as withholding vaccines risks severe outcomes in high-risk groups (e.g., elderly hospitalizations). Only ~3% of RCTs target ≥65-year-olds, per Cochrane reviews, so mortality data relies on observational studies (17-31% reduction).
Practical Impossibility for Yearly Trials: RCTs take 1-2 years and cost millions; running one per season is infeasible amid 6-month production timelines. Instead, FDA approves strain updates based on immunogenicity RCTs (antibody titers), not full efficacy trials—leveraging prior RCT platforms (e.g., mRNA or inactivated vaccines). A 2024 review notes: observational TND studies (e.g., CDC's networks since 2004-05) bridge this, estimating VE at 41% overall (95% CI: 36-46%), with annual tweaks.